At Kenbun Capital, our team is dedicated to identifying the core essence of a good business.
We focus on opportunities where market-perceived risks are overestimated and work to minimize controllable risks during the holding period, aiming to achieve consistent, predictable excess returns.

The investment world features a variety of approaches—value investing, momentum strategies, quantitative models, qualitative analysis, and more. To Kenbun Capital, we liken these approaches to the concepts of "principles" (道) and "methods" (術) :

① Principles are the foundational philosophies and abstract ideas that guide decision-making.
② Methods are the specific techniques or tools used to apply those principles and solve problems.

The same principle can lead to vastly different methods depending on who applies it. These methods are not inherently good or bad but are defined by their assumptions, limitations, blind spots, and, most importantly, timing.

In investment, two key questions always arise :
① Timing: Is this the right moment?
② Pricing: Is it fairly valued or undervalued?

Timing often outweighs pricing in importance, yet it is also the more challenging aspect to identify. We think of financial markets as a legitimate platform for transferring risk between participants, which is why we prioritize analyzing risk over simply chasing returns. At Kenbun Capital, we believe that returns are merely a snapshot of a specific moment in time, but risk always precedes returns.

────── Example ──────
A rumor spreads that a particular cup has become prone to breaking. While the market gradually becomes aware of this risk, the exact cause and severity remain unclear, leading to widespread speculation.

Market Reaction :
Current cup owners rush to sell off their inventory, while potential buyers hesitate or avoid purchasing altogether. This sharp increase in perceived risk triggers panic, causing supply to surge and demand to plummet. As a result, the price of the cup drops rapidly, hitting a low of $10 per unit.

Our Approach :
At this point, our team conducts an in-depth analysis to uncover the root cause. We discover that the cups only break when filled with liquids exceeding 40°C. With this insight, we recognize that the risk has been overestimated and decide to purchase the cups at the heavily discounted price of $10.

Market Correction :
A few weeks later, the market confirms the actual cause. The perceived risk subsides as people realize the cups are still perfectly safe and functional for serving cold beverages. Supply decreases as sellers stop dumping their inventory, and demand rises as buyers regain confidence. The price gradually recovers to $20 per unit.

By selling the cups at this point, we achieve significant returns.

Kenbun Capital's primary objective is to identify opportunities where market risks are overestimated and minimize controllable risks within selected scenarios.
This disciplined approach to risk and timing forms the foundation of our capital allocation strategy.